>> From WXXI News.

This is Connections.

I'm Evan Dawson.

Our connection this hour was made Saturday morning in Tehran, where a group of Iranian leaders gathered to discuss a possible war with Israel and the United States.

What they did not know was that the CIA had tracked their location, and Israel was ready to strike, launching the war and taking out Iran's supreme leader, along with more than a dozen other Iranian leaders at various levels.

President Trump says that American lives will be lost in this operation, but it will be worth the effort to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Three American servicemen have been killed already in an Iranian counter-strike.

President Trump is urging the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow their government and install a new form of democratic leadership.

The call from President Trump evoked the call from then President George H.W.

Bush 35 years ago in 1991, telling the Iraqi people to rise up and overthrow their government.

At the time, a number of Iraqis tried and were crushed.

Many were slaughtered.

And for many Iranian people now, this is a stunning moment and perhaps a chance at a different kind of life.

Iran's supreme leader had become a brutal oppressor, especially to women.

And the question becomes, who can lead now?

President Trump told reporters this weekend that his administration had identified a small handful of possible successors to the supreme leader, but they are now all dead, killed in the first day of bombing.

So he says he's not sure who would be next.

Let's talk about this remarkable turn of events with our guests this hour, and I want to welcome them now.

Welcome back to the program, Dr.

Niaz Abdul Rahim, who is associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Rochester.

Niaz, welcome.

Thank you for being with us.

>> Thanks for having me.

>> And Dr.

Puja Seifzadeh is associate professor of strategy at Suny Geneseo, also a local business owner.

He owns a number of the places that your kids probably like to play, like Bounce Hopper and Ontario Play and Cafe Dr.. Seifzadeh, thank you for being with us as well here.

>> Thank you very much.

>> I'm going to start with Niaz and I'll just ask you, you know, we we spoke a month ago, I don't remember it wasn't that long ago when the protests were happening, and it was clear that the Iranian regime was killing thousands of protesters in the street.

And the question was, what comes next here?

What is what is required of the United States?

What will the United States do?

Well, now we have some answers.

What was Saturday, Friday night, Saturday like for you?

When did you find out?

What was that like?

>> it was a moment that we waited for like more than 40 years to happen.

so this regime, this, this, this person actually was responsible for the killing of many, many thousands of people in Iran.

It was the person who who was responsible for the poor economic situation in the country.

And it was the person who was responsible for many you know proxy activities all around the region.

So I it was a moment of relief for me and for many Iranians.

And we celebrated the ending to his era.

>> When, when the news came that bombing had started and that the first target was Iranian leadership.

And then the next few hours Niaz, you had some Iranian minister saying, oh, the Supreme leader is going to speak on television soon.

He's going to speak in the next hour.

And then he doesn't speak, and then he doesn't speak it.

It became kind of clearer that something had happened.

Was that surreal?

Did you find out before we did?

Did you hear from people in Iran?

>> Oh, no.

No, no, we just for me the first time because I couldn't really like I was, I was waiting for this moment my whole life.

I couldn't really believe my eyes.

I couldn't believe what I was hearing, and nobody knew in Iran.

and then I didn't want to believe if it was not true.

So when it was the first time that I heard from the U.S.

and Israeli authorities, because we never trust the Iranian you know, system and the media in Iran.

>> Is the.

>> Is the first emotion relief.

>> Relief, relief, relief and celebration.

We danced.

We danced to his death.

>> POI puo.

What was Friday night, Saturday like for you?

>> So Friday night before before the attack began I started to have, sort of look at some, some, some of the things that were happening, putting pieces together.

And I was under the impression that the attack was imminent.

the main reason was that the Omanis foreign minister was visiting Washington.

So I was just telling my wife and some other friends that if if the negotiations has gone well, the way that the Iranian foreign minister had claimed, there is absolutely no reason for the foreign minister of Oman to come here and visit and try to make another case.

So obviously something hasn't gone well.

And after the American negotiators and President Trump declined to meet with the Omanis, foreign minister then that led me to the conclusion that the attack is either going to happen within the next couple of days or the next coming the coming week.

I found out early hours in the morning I think like many other Iranians, we've been we've become very accustomed to checking our phones every hour in the middle of the night to find out if the attack has happened over the past month.

And I found out around, like, 3 a.m.

that the attack has, in fact, taken place and woke up my wife and we just were we were in celebration.

this was a moment of jubilation.

We had waited for this moment for a very long time.

and we saw this as a start of a new beginning.

there's still a long way to go.

this is not a regime that depends on one single individual.

it's as a very unique structure.

and it's very decentralized in certain ways and centralized in certain aspects.

and that is why we are still looking forward to this intervention.

Military intervention happened, but it's been celebration.

I've been in contact with my friends in Iran.

they've been celebrating as much as they can.

>> So let's talk a little bit about what you think might come next here.

Because to to the point that Puja is making, this is not just an autocracy with one leader, and then everything dissolves.

And in fact, much of the reporting that I've seen indicates that Iran's leadership had planned contingencies in case there was the death of the supreme leader.

He has a 56 year old son who has been talked about as a possible successor.

There are varying reports on whether his son has been killed.

We don't know.

I don't know if you have any information better than I do.

I don't know but but certainly we know.

I mean, when President Trump says they had identified possible successors and the successors that the Trump administration identified are already dead in the airstrikes, there's a lot of uncertainty.

So let me start with you on this.

What what do you think happens next?

And we'll get into hopes coming up here.

But realistically, what is the next wave of leadership look like?

Do you expect the regime to try to hold on to power, to try to crush dissent?

to flee?

What what do you expect to happen?

>> I expect that the the the the next wave of leadership that is currently taking control, they're going to be more radical.

So more, more radical.

we are we still have at least a sort of a layer of leadership in Iran that needs to be removed before we get to the pragmatic ones that are going to realize that military confrontation ideological stances are not going to be the best interest of either themselves or the Iranian people.

So the those attacks that took place on some of the Persian Gulf countries and states a lot of those are the result of this these radical leaders, sort of military commanders that have taken over these decision decisions.

Iran.

I think over the next few days the main focus should be on elimination of these individuals.

there are some more pragmatic individuals that are in the higher ranks of the regime that might serve as a transitional bridge between our current state in Iran and a democracy, perhaps.

but but but there is work to be done until we get there.

>> And President Trump has called for the leadership and the rank and file in the Iranian military to lay down their arms and stop fighting.

Do you expect that to happen?

>> I expect, at least at parts of the military.

So the Iranian military is also very complex.

So we have the Revolutionary Guard, which is highly ideological.

But we need to understand that a lot of those recruits at the lower ranks of the Revolutionary Guard, at the Army, those are people that are just serving their military service.

They're not professional military personnel.

they don't want to be in this position anymore than any of the normal Iranians do.

there is a chance that they would they would defect.

They would put down their arms and leave the sort of the core ideological sort of aspects of the Revolutionary Guard sort of alone in this fight.

So there is a possibility of that.

There is still the Basij militia which is which if the leadership of that militia is removed, there is a chance that they might find it very difficult to regroup.

We've seen that in the past when there is lack of leadership, they have lost control in in certain past uprisings that Iranians have had when when there has been leadership.

Well, unfortunately, they have been highly effective in crushing dissent.

so hopefully with removal of those leaders, that that threat to the Iranian people will be neutralized and maybe in the next week or two weeks, it will be safe for people to actually start taking over institutions.

>> Niaz, what do you expect this regime to try to do next?

Here?

>> so as I'm just following the news, I see that the regime is not quitting.

In fact, it's escalating.

the the situation with spreading the war.

beyond just Iran, United States and Israel and is actually expanding all over the other Arab countries.

So I think for them is just try to very last moment to survive.

However, I think for, for this government, they know that this is their end of their end of it.

And they have also they have no other places to go.

So I think so, so, so it's going to take time.

It's not as easy as like, yeah, we put we, you know, we took the Supreme leader and he's out and then we are good to go.

It's not it's not like that.

As just said, there is like multiple layers in the government and like in the military and IRGC that they kind of act in parallel.

And then take control of things, in parallel in, in fact the person, the spokesperson for Iran, he just said, like, as a, I think yesterday he just said, like as we lost the Supreme leader all the all the parts of the of the, of the military are working in parallel and they are working on their own as, like, you know, we just told them to just attack whoever or whatever place you can, you can do.

And then there is no, like, commands or like, you know, there is no instructions coming from the top.

So they are just trying their last moment to keep their heads up.

The water.

while I cannot be 100% positive about the outcomes I want to be, I want to still be optimistic about what comes next and hopefully in the next couple weeks we see a more level battlefield that people can really come outside and then take action.

I just want to reiterate that, like, again, people, the Iranian people have talked about their agenda.

They don't want anybody from the inside of this government to to take the the control.

They don't want it.

They want this.

They want the end of this Islamic Republic regime.

They have lost 40,000 people in the last couple months.

And this was like peaceful protest.

People were there with their kids.

Pregnant women were there.

People like family were there and they were all killed and blind shot like like they were not expected.

And then we we lost 40,000 people in just two days, not just two days, two, five hours, like ten hours.

And this is like catastrophic.

This is like genocide.

Yet after all these grief and all these, these losing of people, yet the Iranian students come to the come to the university and, and chant again that we want this regime again.

So I think for the Iranian people at this moment, there is no turnaround.

They will continue and they will continue their battle against this regime until they take it down.

What happens next, I understand, is going to be very complex, but I think we have a clear mission and we know what we don't want.

So at least at least we are we are clear about that.

Then we should take step by step.

>> Okay.

And so let me ask both of you, Puja, I'll start with you when we see all of these images and not just Tehran, but images across Iran of different demonstrations.

Now, it's hard to know in the moment if what we're looking at is representative of what the Iranian people want.

Both of you are telling us that in general, the Iranian people want this.

They want the end of this regime.

They want change.

Once in a while.

We've seen in the last couple of days video of what looked to me to be.

And again, just from what I'm seeing, mostly men protesting the death of the Supreme leader and condemning the strikes.

Do you believe that that is a small portion?

Do you?

How would you expect the numbers actually break down in terms of what's your best guess in terms of what the Iranian people are feeling here?

>> Well.

>> Let me start with this.

In 2015, the estimates of people who support Bashar Assad in Syria were 47%.

And this was not an estimate based that his regime put out there.

This was an estimate based on sort of foreign foreign organizations.

They felt that there was 10 to 15% loss.

And the there was a significant Sunni population, the Kurds, they were all supporting him when he came to people actually standing up to the regime, we found out that that was not really the case.

And the overwhelming majority of the Syrians were opposing Bashar Assad.

Iran's Islamic regime has been overwhelmingly successful in organizing its masses and creating large crowds in specific places.

So they would gather people from all the different cities.

They would bring them to a location of interest.

They would create a large crowd.

Look, it's a 90 million, 92 million population country.

If you have ten, 10% of the population, that's going to be 9 million people.

If you can get like 10% of that, it's going to be a million people.

It's going to be a large population, and people would be misled to believe that.

Well, that is a large population that supports the regime.

But that's a population that is protected.

They are armed and they are pro-regime.

Now, my estimate is at least 60 to 70%.

And this is not a scientific estimate.

>> I understand.

>> And it's just would be actively looking for the removal of the regime.

There is 20% that are hoping that it will go, but they won't want to get engaged.

And there is probably 10% diehard supporters of the regime.

and that is based on my convenience sampling.

Right.

So the people that I see around me, I've seen a lot of people that were staunch supporters of the regime that have now turned, I see and I see the communications the among my, my, my, my chat groups and and how these large groups of people that once were once either neutral, uncertain stances or no longer neutral they take to the streets, some of them were shot during these protests.

People that I know, some of them lost loved ones.

People got arrested.

but this is no longer a society that is behind this regime.

They have made a separation between this regime and the country.

when Kazem Soleimani was assassinated a few years ago we we had large crowds of people at the time that associated him with some sort of sort of a heroic figure for, for for Iran.

During the last protest, people were burning his statues.

It's a complete turnaround.

People have started to separate the symbolism of what represents the regime, with what really represents the Iranian identity.

so that would be my assessment.

>> Okay.

Yeah.

And so I wonder if you generally agree with how Pulido breaks down the Iranian populace there.

>> Yeah, yeah, I totally agree.

And I just want to reiterate that, like, you know, there is no free media in Iran, like all the footage and everything you see is from pro-regime media.

So none of them then if you imagine, like all the protests and everything that were actually happened on that two nights, none of them were broadcasted from the country or to the, you know, to to the outside.

I would also like to, to say that, like, you know it appears that like, some media doesn't want to coverage as much as it has to be like, you know, just two weeks ago we had, like, international protests all around the world around I think 600,000 people appeared in to protest in Toronto, in Munich, in Los Angeles, in Sydney, like, more than around, I think around 2 million, less than 2 million people appeared in these protests.

So this is this is like 2 million people.

And I think our diaspora is like 5 million.

So this is like a good sampling of the population.

And then again, like, like Pooja said, many people was still maybe at some point, like we're, we're talking about like, this is our government.

Like, you know, they do bad things, but like, this is our government.

They're trying to, like, protect us.

But at some point, the real face of this government has been cleared for everybody.

And I think, again, at this point, there are some people who are pro U.S.

intervention, and there are some people who are opposing it.

But I think more than 70, even 80% of the people who are really who really want this regime to be gone.

So that I think a very large portion of the population are agreeing with this, with this comment.

>> So, listeners, if you want to offer questions, comments on this, you can email the program Connections at WXXI.

Org, you can call the program toll free 8442958442958255263 WXXI.

If you're in Rochester, 2639994.

If you're watching on YouTube, you can join the chat there.

There's one I think very important point that I want to ask both of you about, and I understand the American people who are nervous about another war in the Middle East, because what they saw was going back.

Well, you can go back before 1991, but let's start in 1991.

George H.W.

Bush tells the Iraqis, rise up, overthrow your government.

Some try.

They're crushed.

They're killed.

Then the United States goes into Iraq.

In 2003, it became a disaster.

the the what happened next was not well planned.

It was not well understood in Syria.

Bashar al-Assad was a horrific figure.

But what we're learning now is what comes next is not easy to figure out or plan for.

And it might not be what people in the West want, and certainly in Afghanistan, years of American intervention to try to not only eliminate the Taliban, but to create some sort of a structured democratic society.

Now the Taliban is back in control.

So for Americans who see that and they say, why are we doing this in Iran?

Look what happened in Iraq.

Look what happened in Afghanistan.

Look at Syria.

The best case that I have read recently indicates this.

This is not my expertise I'm reading.

And that's why I'm asking both of you that we cannot just assume that Iran is Afghanistan, is Iraq, that it is different, that it is a little more homogenous population, a more modern society.

True animus to the regime and true opportunity to maybe take an opportunity and to make change in the way that we would want.

Maybe that's too optimistic, but I'll start with with Puia.

Do you think that the comparisons that Americans, I think, are justifiably making saying, is this another Iraq?

Is this another Afghanistan in the making your Iran different enough that you believe that this can go differently?

>> let me first start with the question of why, right.

So why why should we intervene as I'm now speaking as an Iranian American, right?

Yeah.

>> there is there's a security issue, but there's also an economic imperative.

The Iranian regime in the past four decades has cost the U.S.

economy over $1.5 trillion.

Some estimates are $2.5 trillion in unnecessary military readiness costs.

We could have spent that money way better elsewhere.

And I'm not counting all the other human rights related violations that they've committed.

For Iranians, it's been every year that this regime has been in power, it's been more deaths.

Just thinking about the going back to 2020.

This regime was on its knees.

they were there were sanctions in place.

they had economic issues.

Sanctions were removed.

What happened next?

They restricted the imports of vaccines, lack of vaccines resulted in an additional 75,000 deaths.

we had all those issues.

And then the executions.

Now, going back to the other question, we Iran is the oldest continuously inhabited country in the world.

Our borders were never defined, drawn by any country.

It's not like any of those countries that you can that have been created after World War one, after World War two, we never separated from another country.

we the all these different groups, ethnicities some call them nationalities within the Iranian borders.

We intermixed, we mingle.

We have we have a common culture.

We have a common history.

we we intermarry we we unite in a way that a lot of these other countries do not we, we are constitutional revolution, about 100 and now 118 years ago, we had people who were Turkish speaking that they moved from northwestern part of Tehran to conquer the capital that was Persian speaking, just to bring them freedom.

A few years ago, when that Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini, was killed, we had people in Baluchistan, completely different ethnicity in southeastern part of Iran.

They went to the streets, they got killed because they were asking for justice for that Kurdish girl.

We have people of all.

We have our Arabs that stood up to when Saddam Hussein in 1980 attacked Iran.

He was under the impression that the Arab provinces in Iran are going to welcome him and are going to try to separate and join Iraq.

They were the ones that stood up and tried to keep the borders.

I don't think we're going to see any of those issues here.

All of us.

This is will unite around a common cause.

And just that is justice and freedom for Iranians.

This is a very different country.

We have one identity.

We're Iranian.

That is not a race, that is not an ethnicity.

There is nothing, no such language as an Iranian language, as an Iranian ethnicity, as an Iranian race.

But it's just an idea that brings us all these different cultures and languages together.

I don't think there is any other country like that in the world.

Quite, quite honestly.

I told my son, Sean, you got to be quite proud of this.

This.

There is no such thing like that.

And I and for that reason, I think this we're not going to see Iran become like Assyria or like a Libya like Iraq.

I think we're all going to pull together.

We're going to hold on, and we're going to make this sort of work for all of us, not just for some of us.

>> Okay.

Same question for the Americans who are nervous and they see the history of regime change.

Can it be different in Iran?

>> so as an Iranian American that I really value American principles?

I really understand the Americans concerns about getting involved into this situation.

I feel I really feel for the, you know, families who have their loved ones on duty in this this war and then who have lost their loved ones.

American troops, but at the same time, I want to say that you know for, for for Iranians, this is like not a war.

They don't see it as a war.

They see it as a sort of humanitarian help.

when we see a country is mass killing 40 thousands of peoples in just one day and let alone how many people were murdered and killed and suppressed during the past 40, 40 years.

I think it's for the international community to to to not stay silent and indifferent, but to basically intervene and then stop the oppressive system.

having said that, if we are going back to this question of like, what is in this for the American society, for the American people, I want to say that I think to me, this war has not been started today or on Saturday.

This war against America and also international community and Iranian population has been started many years ago when this Islamic Republic regime started to put on threads on people, especially American citizens, like they took 360 American citizens as hostage for one year for, for for one, for no reason.

They continued threatening you know other countries, they're continuing their proxy efforts all around the region.

so think about this, this regime that killed, again, its own people in two days.

These many people.

And then think about if this regime has, like, achieves this nuclear arsenals, what they're going to do with that, like this, this regime, with this unhinged power that you know, they, they do whatever they want and they do whatever they can to just survive.

So there is no limit on the things they, they, they want to do and they can do.

So if, again, I, I'm not a political scientist, I don't, I don't want to compare this against the previous administration.

Like war against Iraq.

But I want to say like, at least, at least like, if we are not if everybody is not on the same boat, that, like, what should be the best action?

At least we should be in consensus or we are all can acknowledge that this is a threat to the internet.

This regime is a threat to the international community, and it has to be started, stopped.

It continued.

Its unhinged proxy again.

efforts continue to condemn and murder and suppress its own people.

And if we just say and then legitimize their actions and their doings, like what the other you know, what we have done in the past.

So they're just continue with this, all this evil things that they are doing, it has to be stopped again.

I think I think the most important reasoning here is that they are the threat.

The single threat.

I would say at this moment to the international community and including American people.

Unfortunately.

>> My guests are Iranian Americans.

Dr.

Niaz Abdul Rahim, associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Rochester, doctor Pouya Seifzadeh, who is associate professor of strategy at Suny Geneseo and a local business owner.

And after we take this only break, I've got your phone calls lined up.

We'll take some comments as well on email.

We'll do that next on Connections.

I'm Evan Dawson Tuesday on the next Connections.

We sit down in the first hour with Nate Salzman, a Democrat who challenged longtime incumbent supervisor in Brighton, Bill Maley.

And won got the designation recently.

He wants to be the next supervisor, and we're going to talk about why make a change now and what he wants to do if he's elected in our second, our city magazine, looking at family for the month of March, talk to you Tuesday.

>> Support for your public radio station comes from our members and from Mary Cariola center.

Proud supporter of Connections with Evan Dawson.

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>> This is Connections.

I'm Evan Dawson all right to the phone calls.

We go.

This is Tony in Geneseo.

Hi, Tony.

Go ahead.

>> Hi.

I'm 100% against this involvement.

You know, Donald, Donald Trump started this war in 2018.

He abrogated the jcope.

It was working.

Iran is not a threat to us.

Iran is a minuscule thing in compared to Russia.

They've got so many ballistic missiles and so many nuclear weapons, and we've stood that down for, what, 60 years?

You know, we're out there trying to help Israel, trying to fix everyone else's problems.

We're I'm done with that.

You know, let's take care of our own problems.

And if we weren't so belligerent at times to Iran, maybe things would get better.

We installed the Shah.

Okay?

And now we want to put the Shah son back after he got kicked out.

After we got rid of him.

Come on, we're.

This is over.

And this is just stirring the pot, right?

For more military intervention.

And the best thing to do is to try to get along.

And we had a deal.

So Donald Trump didn't start this war two days ago.

He started it eight years ago.

And and, you know, as you say, 70% of Iranians are are against this government.

Well, Reuters just took a poll, 75% of Americans are against this.

And I'm one of those 75%.

>> All right, Tony, thank you for that.

So I'm going to let our guests jump in here.

First of all, Tony brings up Reza Pahlavi, who is the son of the Shah.

As he mentioned, he did an interview with CBS 60 minutes this weekend.

He is certainly positioning himself as a possible returning leader.

And I'll just ask both of our guests here.

Niaz, we talked about him a little bit last time, but what do you think of Reza Pahlavi as a possible future leader of Iran?

>> so.

So.

first of all, I would like to say, you know at this point, I'm not talking about, like, we are not talking about the presidential own intensive incentives on, you know, going for a war or not.

We are simply talking about if the if the if the external intervention is required, to end this regime or not for Pahlavi.

Honestly, I think it looks like a lot of people in inside Iran also a lot of people outside, we, we saw this in many of the protests outside the country that I talked about like two, around 2 million people, actually, not 2 million, but like around one, 1.5 million people actually appeared in this protest.

And then there is a large population of people or supporting Reza Pahlavi.

but I want to live it for later on when we have a better situation.

Hopefully after this regime is, is gone.

While I personally think he is a good he's in a good situation for leading the the, the transition from the current situation to the next, hopefully secular government.

he himself has talked about it many, many times that he wants to open up the the, the, the system for everybody to come in and, and for a free referendum to, to happen.

so honestly, I think whatever comes as after this, if it's not like for this theocratic kind of you know Islamic Republic at any, any type of secular government that is talking or taking the majority of the people into account, that would be a good next step for the Iranian people.

>> I pull you just briefly Reza Pahlavi yes or no?

>> Well.

>> Reza Pahlavi.

For the time being, he's shown good leadership.

I think it is very too soon to decide who is going to be the next leader.

Yeah.

we need a person, a figure, somebody who can lead this movement until we get to the voting box, to the referendum.

And at this point he has certain advantages.

one of them is that because of his royal history he is somewhat seen beyond ethnic lines.

So he's not he's better accepted among Kurds, Arabs, Turks, Persians, Lurs, Baluchis, all these different ethnicities that form.

So nobody claims him as their own.

So they see him beyond that.

So he's more like a unifying figure.

and I appreciate the fact that he has, in many instances, suggested that he is not going to claim himself as the monarch until people speak at a voting box at an election.

And that is exactly what we want.

When we reach that point.

Then we'll let people speak.

>> Yeah, I take the point that you're worried about the day to day surviving and getting past this regime.

>> Yeah.

And the fact that I don't think up to this point, I haven't seen him take having taken any missteps.

>> Okay.

now, briefly here, Tony is saying he does not buy the idea that Iran is a threat to the world.

And he said he thought the inspections on the nuclear program were working, that we did not need to veer off course.

You're shaking your head.

>> You know, they were not right.

So I, I happen to know because, well, unlike Tony, I'm Iranian.

I read Persian news.

I read what's spoken, and I talk to people that are actively involved in different industries in Iran.

No, they were not working.

Yes, there was money that was released.

I'm not talking about $1.7 billion.

That is minuscule compared to the revenues that the regime the government made, through export of oils.

that's that's nothing.

So I don't really want to talk about that.

It is a fact.

Yes.

They they stuck to the main aspects of the JCPoA during those years.

Most of those funds did not trickle down to the economy.

They were trickle down into building up this this this machine of oppression.

They were trickle down.

They were funding sort of the missile program, the military, the Revolutionary Guard, the proxies.

If you look at the years that we had the JCPoA in, in, in sort of in effect, we had multiple times that people had uprising.

They had that they were demanding having economic demands.

They were crushed every single time.

So no, those did not really work.

and the when you talk to people that were connected to the regime, they were always ready to have an escape ahead.

As soon as they got the opportunity.

And the evidence is there, as soon as the JCPoA sort of was, was, was annulled, they started to they were ready and prepared to enrich uranium at much higher levels.

And they had built those capacities.

The former president Khatami, who was in power from 1997 to 2005, multiple times he explicitly stated that they lied to inspectors, to IAEA inspectors and this this is, was on record after his presidency was over.

No, the regime was not was not honest or truthful truthful about this.

Whoever believes this they are they are not.

They have been misinformed.

>> Tony, you are correct to point to the polling.

I mean, right now the polling and there's different polls out there, but certainly it doesn't look like this is a war effort.

So far that Americans are embracing in huge numbers.

the case will have to be made by the president the secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, said today he thought it was a trick question or a trap question.

When someone in the media asked him, well, how long do you expect this to go on?

He said, it could be two weeks, four weeks, six weeks.

They don't know.

He thought that was a, you know, he wasn't going to get trapped into that question.

So, you know, we'll have to see.

But I do appreciate the phone call, Tony, last time we were talking about the situation in Iran, we had Shahin Monshipour who couldn't join us in studio today.

But Shaheen is calling in another Iranian American.

Hello, Shaheen.

Go ahead.

>> Hi, Evan, this is Shaheen.

As you said.

I'd like to say, first of all that.

Yes, the death of Khomeini pleased.

all the Iranian population, with the exception of some Basijis.

And I guess, members.

Other than that, everybody danced.

Everybody was happy, including myself.

Secondly, I want to go back to the very first moments of Dr.

Zadeh's comments, and I agree with him that we need a week or two before we can make any predictions about what's coming next, because there's a void of information, a massive void of information right now, and we don't know exactly what's going to happen and what are United States ambitions.

And Mr.

Trump's plan.

And he changes day by day.

As you know, it was first about helping Iranians.

Then it changed to curbing the atomic bomb.

Then it became regime change.

Then it's not regime change.

So we don't know it will become clear whether this change is going to be replacing.

Khomeini with another dictator.

being for, for instance, Reza Pahlavi or bringing back the monarchy or Mr.

Lajevardi bringing back Islamic regime.

We don't know those things.

And as for Reza Pahlavi, I'm very sad to hear it over and over that he has a big base in Iran.

He doesn't.

I was recently I just came back from San Diego.

I did witness the huge demonstration of monarchists.

I didn't participate because they wouldn't allow me, because they would say, only you have to chant, long live your.

They would say in one breath, death to dictatorship and long live Shah.

What does it mean?

Death to dictatorship.

But we want a king.

So I saw their nasty, nasty behavior towards using force.

Using on the verge of fistfights with others who wanted to join them.

And they would refuse to say long live Shah.

Instead, they would hold a sign that would say, here's a picture of some of these martyrs, these thousands of people who were killed.

Come on Americans, please help us in better ways.

I totally agree with Tony.

Your last caller, about the view of Americans.

I really congratulate him on gathering that kind of conceptual framework.

And knowing being informed about what is United States doing.

I'm sorry I took so long.

No, it's very much.

>> It's okay, Shane, and it's nice to hear from you.

So I want to ask our guests in studio about a point that Shaheen is making.

Though she's not wrong in that this administration has shifted the explanations for what this is about.

And if we look at Venezuela, for example, they removed Maduro.

But now Delcy Rodriguez is in charge.

Who was the vice president and viewed by Venezuelans as almost just as corrupt and perhaps equally dangerous.

And the Trump administration says, well, we can keep her under control.

We'll let her run things as long as she's playing ball enough.

If the same situation happens where the Trump administration says, okay, Iran can have a new supreme leader as long as he listens to us on the nuclear weapons program, we're going to let him keep charge.

will that be a disaster or or do you think that there is some kind of a solution where the same structure stays?

There's a new supreme leader, but the Trump administration kind of okays him.

Israel okays him, and, you know, it's kind of a half change.

What do you think?

>> I think any scenario that sort of puts in place a new supreme leader is highly unlikely because the current system is in a very unstable place.

people have come to streets in large masses and I highly doubt that either President Trump or anybody else would want to have to deal with this issue all over again sometime down the future, and not in a very distant future, in a very near future.

if the attacks at this point have been successful, which based on the information that I received from a lot of sources from within Iran, they have largely been and they have taken out a lot of those sort of very hard line supporters those military forces of the regime.

If there is another supreme leader that is empowered, that is going to have less of a military apparatus that their power to control the regime.

So probably it's it's a very unlikely scenario that that somebody would calculus that somebody would take.

Now going back to the sort of the other issue that your caller brought up.

Yeah.

>> You got about 30s.

>> Go ahead.

So.

>> My understanding is that the support for Reza Pahlavi.

And I'm not a monarchist, is actually much higher than what she thinks.

based on the information I got from some people that were not monarchists themselves, at least 50% of chance in the streets during the past month have been in support calling for his name.

And I'm not saying that they want a monarchy.

They're looking for a leader to get them to the.

>> Transitional leader.

Yes.

Okay.

That's how you would see politics.

Okay.

so briefly, as as we get ready to wrap up here, Shaheen is concerned about what the next leadership could be.

And the Trump administration has not been consistent on what they say this is about.

Are you worried about a Venezuela situation where Maduro is gone?

But now the VP is in charge?

It's the same structure, the same military leadership.

Are you worried about that in Iran?

>> I'm always worried about the future of Iran.

So nothing is one hundred for 100% sure.

but I think, again, as Shaheen also mentioned last time, the Iran the situation in Iran is not comparable to situation in Venezuela.

Like we have.

This started from the Iranian public.

This was the Iranian public's demands to like, continue and overturn this, this government.

So they clearly know what they want and they clearly know you know, how how to proceed.

And then again, I would say her experience in San Diego is was perhaps a very small observation.

We see thousands and thousands of people who are peacefully chanting his name.

Pahlavi Pahlavi Pahlavi.

Okay.

And then there is no like, you know interactions or such.

Well, this.

>> This group that we've been talking to, Iranian Americans, you're all welcome to come back soon.

I know the events are going to be changing quickly.

Thank you all for being here.

Thank you for sharing your experience, for inviting us.

Thank you.

Thank you very much from all of us at Connections.

Thanks for listening.

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