A look at competitive House seats in 2024 campaign

GEOFF BENNETT: As the potential 2024 presidential matchups gain attention, the battle lines for the House of Representatives are also emerging.

Both the Republican and Democratic campaign organizations are figuring out their key vulnerabilities and potential districts to win back.

Here with a look at the key House races, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.

Hello, Amy Walter.

It's good to see you.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: How are you?

GEOFF BENNETT: So control of the House has flipped several times in recent history.

Republicans just picked up the House in this last go-round.

And here we are talking about a potential flip.

So, set the scene for us.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: That's right.

In 51 years, from the 1950s until about 2005, the House only flipped twice.

In the last 16 years, it's flipped four times.

So there's every reason to think that, boy, it will be likely be as volatile in this next election as it has been in that previous 16, in large part because, once again, it's a very narrow majority that Republicans have.

It's a five-seat majority.

And they have a number of districts that are pretty difficult for them in terms of holding onto.

Take the five-seat majority, but you have 18 Republicans who sit in districts that Biden carried.

Now, Democrats have their own vulnerabilities to worry about, but only five of their members sit in districts that Trump carried.

So that initial 23, that's where the parties are focusing right now.

But it's easy to understand why this concept of the House flipping one more time is certainly in -- not only just a possibility, but why the House is considered a toss-up in 2024.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's talk about the Republicans specifically.

Where, looking at the map, are they most vulnerable?

AMY WALTER: So those 18 districts that I mentioned where you have a Republican sitting in a district that Joe Biden carried, they are in -- roughly concentrated in two states, California and New York.

In fact, for all the good that Democrats had on election night in 2022, for as well as they did, they did so in battleground states.

They did in red states like Ohio.

Pennsylvania also did particularly well.

And yet they came up short in places like New York and California.

What Democrats believe is, we get to a presidential year, presidential turnout will bring out their voters who stayed home, weren't as inspired to come out in the election, where the issues like abortion weren't as hot button as they were in a place like Michigan, for example, those bluer states feeling more comfortable and confident about the state of abortion access in their states.

Come the presidential election, those folks turn out, and those 11 districts are going to be their top targets.

GEOFF BENNETT: Got it.

OK.

So, Democrats, what are their political hurdles?

AMY WALTER: Democrats, right.

Their political hurdles not only are those five who sit in districts that Trump carried, but there's this redistricting.

Now, redistricting, we think, ends at the -- once the census comes out at the beginning of a decade, everybody draws their lines, and it's over.

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes.

AMY WALTER: Well, it hasn't been over for a long time.

Actually, we have been seeing in these last couple of redistricting cycles, the courts have gotten involved multiple times.

States have redrawn their lines multiple times.

For Democrats, their biggest hurdle right now is North Carolina, which is legally required to redraw their lines.

But there's a Republican majority now on the Supreme Court.

The thinking is, the map that will pass muster with those justices could put at least three or four Democrats in some trouble.

The other thing, the other hurdle, history.

It has been more than 70 years that the House flipped in a presidential year.

You have to go back to the 1950s since the House has actually changed hands during a presidential cycle.

But going back to what I said before about how volatile things are, part of the reason, though, that history may not repeat is that our turnout has gotten so dramatic, so many people coming out and voting in midterms and in presidential years, that the outcomes now very narrow, but also could be more unpredictable than ever.

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes.

Maps count for a lot.

Messaging accounts for a lot too.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

GEOFF BENNETT: In the 30 seconds or so we have left, how are the parties thinking about that moving forward?

AMY WALTER: Right.

For Democrats, it's, Joe Biden did what he said he was going to do.

Things are back track.

Talk a lot about implementing things like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

For Republicans, focus on inflation, and trying to make this race once again about failures of the Biden administration to bring the economy back to where they would like to see it.

GEOFF BENNETT: Amy Walter following it all very closely.

Amy, it's good to see you.

AMY WALTER: Thanks, Geoff.