NOW WE TURN TO THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS CHAOTIC SCENES OF RUSSIAN TANKS EXPLODING WERE RECORDED BY UKRAINIAN MILITARY DRONES IN DONETSK.
SOME RUSSIAN MILITARY BLOGGERS CALL IT A FIASCO AND GEARS UP FOR A SPRING OFFENSIVE.
OUR NEXT GUEST INVESTOR BILL BROADER JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS THE NATO ALLY SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND PACE OF THE ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE AT THIS CRITICAL JUNCTION JUNK TOOUR.
>> WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.
>> GREAT TO BE HERE.
>> YOU WERE ONCE THE LARGEST FOREIGN INVESTOR IN RUSSIA AND FOR THE PAST TWO DECADES, YOU'VE BEEN ONE OF THE STRONGEST ENEMIES I WOULD SAY OF VLADIMIR PUTIN ESPECIALLY TRYING TO PUT SANCTIONS ON HIM FOR THE THINGS HE'S DONE AND NOW UKRAINE.
TELL ME IN THE PAST YEAR SINCE THIS UKRAINE WAR HAS HAPPENED WHAT YOU LEARNED.
>> WELL, WE WERE LIVING IN A WORLD BEFORE WHERE EVERYBODY FOR 20 YEARS, EVERYBODY WAS TRYING TO APPEASE PUTIN.
HE WOULD DO THE MOST TERRIBLE THINGS.
HE INVADED GEORGIA AND CARPET BOMBED SYRIA AND TOOK CRIMEA AND NOBODY WANTEDED TO DO ANYTHING.
SOMEHOW THINKING IF THEY JUST KEPT THEIR HANDS AWAY FROM HIM HE WOULD SOMEHOW BEHAVE HIMSELF AND WHAT WE'VE LEARNED IS THAT HE'S A MURDEROUS, MASS MURDERER WHO INVADED A FOREIGN COUNTRY, ESCALATED THE WAR AND KILLED TENS OF THOUSANDS IF NOT HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AND WE'RE IN A WORLD WHERE WE HAVE TO USE EVERYTHING WE'VE GOT TO SHUT THIS GUY DOWN.
>> ARE YOU TALKING MORE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS OR MILITARY?
>> I DON'T THINK ANY OF US WANT TO SEND OUR OWN TROOPS INTO RUSSIA BUT I THINK THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE BEHAVIOR OF THE UNITED STATES AND E.U.
AND VARIOUS OTHER COUNTRIES MILITARY, WE'VE GIVEN THE UKRAINIANS ENOUGH NOT TO LOSE THE WAR BUT IT'S DRIP FEEDING AS WE GIVE THEM THIS STUFF AND WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH YET TO WIN THE WAR.
ZELENSKYY IS GOING AROUND BEGGING FOR STRONGER WEAPONS TO REPEL AND GET THE RUSSIANS OUT OF UKRAINE AND IT'S A THOUGHT OUT STRATEGY NOT TO GIVE THE UKRAINIANS WHAT THEY NEED.
I HEARD THIS STATED EXPLICITLY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES.
EVERYBODY IS WORRIED NOW ABOUT PROVOKING PUTIN ESCALATING WHEN PUTIN IS DOING ALL THE ESCALATING.
>> WAIT, YOU SAY YOU TALKED TO U.S. AND OTHER MILITARY OFFICIALS AND PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD AND THEY SAY WE CAN'T DO THAT BECAUSE THE ESCALATION COULD GET TOO BAD.
IS THERE TRUTH ON THAT?
DO WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THIS ESCALATING OUT OF CONTROL?
>> IT ESCALATED OUT OF CONTROL ON FEBRUARY 24th.
VLADIMIR PUTIN LAUNCHED AN INVASION OF A PEACEFUL NEIGHBOR.
THAT WAS THE ESCALATION.
HE'S BOMBING THEM EVERY DAY.
HE'S BOMBING CIVILIANS.
HE'S TRYING TO TAKE OUT ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE AND KILLING PEOPLE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
THAT'S THE ESCALATION.
ALL WE'RE TRYING TO DO IS STOP THIS AND THE ONLY WAY TO STOP IT IS BY DEFEATING HIM AND IF YOU LOOK AT IT FROM A U.S. STANDPOINT, HERE YOU'VE GOT A HOSTILE INTERNATIONAL POWER THAT IS -- DOESN'T HAVE OUR BEST INTEREST AT HEART.
WE DON'T HAVE TO LOSE A SINGLE AMERICAN LIFE BY SUPPORTING UKRAINIANS.
THEY'RE READY TO FIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR FREEDOM.
GIVE THEM EVERYTHING THEY ASK FOR.
>> FOR THE PAST, YOU'VE BEEN GOING AROUND THE WORLD IN EUROPE TALKING ABOUT MORE AND MORE SANCTIONS.
TELL ME WHAT SANCTIONS HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE SO FAR?
>> WELL, I THINK ALL OF THEM HAVE BEEN TO A GREATER OR LESSER EXTENT.
YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT SANCTIONS IN TWO WAYS.
THEY CAN BE A DETERRENT, WHICH THEY HAVEN'T BEEN BECAUSE WE DIDN'T USE THEM PROPERLY BEFORE HAND OR A PUNISHMENT.
HERE THEY ARE A PUNISHMENT.
SO THERE IS A DIFFERENT SORT OF SECTIONS OF SANCTIONS.
WE'VE FROZEN $350 BILLION OF RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK RESERVES.
THAT'S LIKE THEIR WAR CHESS.
THAT MONEY IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE TO THEM.
WE SANCTIONED ABOUT 40 RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS AND HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF OLIGARCH MONEY FROZEN AROUND THE WORLD WHICH IN MY OPINION, THAT'S SORT OF ANOTHER WAR CHEST OF PUTIN'S.
HE CAN DRAW ON THAT MONEY.
WE'VE ALSO CUT RUSSIA'S BANKS, MANY OF THEM, MOST OF THEM OFF THE SWIFT INTERNATIONAL BANKING SYSTEM.
WE SANCTIONED OIL COMPANIES AND MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO IMPORT TECHNOLOGY AND THIS IS -- I THINK ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE GRINDING RUSSIA DOWN.
IT'S NOT GOING TO BE SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT BUT GRINDING RUSSIA DOWN.
>> WHEN DO YOU THINK THAT WILL GRIND THEM DOWN SO THEY MIGHT STOP?
>> I'M NOT SURE IT WILL GRIND THEM DOWN TO THEM STOPPING FOR ONE SIMPLE REASON.
THEY CONTINUE TO SELL OIL AND GAS IN LARGE QUANTITIES TO THE WEST.
THE NUMBERS AFTER THE WAR WERE LIKE A BILLION DOLLARS A DAY OF WESTERN MONEY WAS GOING INTO RUSSIA AND A BILLION DOLLARS A DAY WAS BEING SPENT NOT TO KILL UKRAINIANS AND THE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE A BILLION DOLLARS A DAY ANYMORE.
MAYBE IT'S $700 MILLION A DAY OR $500 MILLION A DAY BUT STILL A LOT OF MONEY GOING INTO RUSSIA, WHICH THEY CAN USE FOR THEIR WAR EFFORT AND UNTIL WE STOP BUYING THEIR OIL AND FINDING A WAY TO GET OTHER PEOPLE TO STOP BUYING THEIR OIL, THEY CONTINUE TO HAVE MONEY TO DO THIS.
>> HOW CAN WE GET PEOPLE TO STOP BUYING OIL?
WHAT SHOULD WE DO ON OIL?
>> THERE IS A BIG PROPORTION OF THE WORLD RIGHT NOW, A VERY BIG PROPORTION, THE G 7, THE EUROPEAN UNION, WHO HAVE ALL SAID WE WANT TO SANCTION RUSSIA AND PREVENT THEM FROM DOING THIS AND A MUCH SMALLER SECTION OF THE WORLD FROM AN ECONOMIC STANDPOINT THAT SAYS WE WANT TO CONTINUE TO DO BUSINESS WITH RUSSIA.
COUNTRIES LIKE SOUTH AFRICA AND INDONESIA AND BRAZIL AND INDIA.
WE COULD EASILY IF WE WANT TO, WE CAN SAY IF YOU WANT TO DO BUSINESS WITH US, YOU CAN'T DO BUSINESS WITH RUSSIA.
>> WAIT A MINUTE.
IF WE HAD TO DO THAT, WE'D BE SAYING YOU CAN'T DO BUSINESS WITH CHINA.
YOU CAN'T DO BUSINESS WITH INDIA OR SOUTH AFRICA.
ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES HAVE NOT YET JOINED THE SANCTIONS REGIME.
>> THAT'S WHAT I'M SAYING.
YOU GO TO SOUTH AFRICA FOR EXAMPLE AND SAY -- YOU WANT 70% OF THE WORLD OR 1% OF THE WORLD?
IF YOU DO BUSINESS WITH 1% OF THE WORLD, WE'LL CUT YOU OFF FROM 70% OF THE WORLD.
WE COULD DO THAT.
IF WE DID THAT, THEY COULD HAVE TO MAKE A CHOICE.
RIGHT NOW WE'RE NOT FORCING A CHOICE.
WE COULD ISOLATE RUSSIA MUCH FURTHER THAN WE'RE DOING IF WE SAID TO EVERYBODY, YOU KNOW, IT'S EITHER US OR THEM.
EVERYBODY VOTES WITH THEIR FEET AND MONEY.
WE HAVEN'T DONE THAT.
WE HAVEN'T BEEN TOUGH IN THAT WAY.
THAT'S ONE THING WE COULD DO.
THERE IS ONE THING I'M GOING AROUND THE WORLD TALKING ABOUT WHICH I THINK WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
AFTER THE WAR STARTED, WE FROZE $350 BILLION OF CENTRAL BANK RESERVES.
AND THE WORLD HAS DONE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DAMAGE TO UKRAINE.
RUSSIA DID THE DAMAGE.
WE HAVE CUSTODY OF THE MONEY.
INSTEAD OF HAVING IT FROZEN, THE MONEY SHOULD BE CONFISCATED AND HANDED TO UKRAINIANS FOR DEFENSE AND RECONSTRUCTION.
PUTIN BROKE IT.
HE SHOULD FIX IT.
THAT'S PROBABLY THE SINGLE BIGGEST THING WE COULD DO IN THE VERY SHORT TERM TO DO IT.
>> EXPLAIN TO ME THE CONFISCATING OF THE RESERVES.
>> THOSE RESERVES ARE PROTECTED BY SOVEREIGN IMMUNITY.
SOVEREIGN IMMUNITY MEANS ANYTHING THAT BELONGS TO A COUNTRY, A STATE CAN'T BE TAKEN AWAY AND CAN'T MOVE INTO THE EMBASSY BECAUSE IT BELONGS TO THAT COUNTRY.
REASONABLE AND THAT'S HOW INTERNATIONAL LAW WORKED FOR THE LAST MANY, MANY YEARS.
PUTIN HAS REDEFINED INTERNATIONAL CRIME AND HE HAS REDRAWN THE BORDERS OF EUROPE AND KILLED, BEEN A MASS MURDERER.
KILLED UNIMAGINABLE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AND SO WE'RE SITTING THERE IN THIS SITUATION WHERE HE'S REDEFINING INTERNATIONAL CRIME AND WE'RE SITTING THERE SAYING YOUR MONEY IS PROTECTED?
WE NEED TO REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL LAW TO ELEVATE IT TO THE LEVEL OF HIS -- THE WAY HE'S BECOME AN INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL.
AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN SPECIFICALLY?
THAT MEANS THAT LAWS HAVE TO BE PASSED IN A NUMBER OF MAJOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WHICH SAYS THAT SOVEREIGN IMMUNITY ALSO APPLIES IN EVERY CIRCUMSTANCE EXCEPT IN THE CIRCUMSTANCE WHEN A COUNTRY HAS INVADED A NEIGHBORING COUNTRY AND COMMITTED AN ACT OF AGGRESSION, WHICH IS HOW THIS WAR IS BEING DEFINED UNDER LEGAL TERMS.
THAT'S ONE NARROW CIRCUMSTANCE WHERE SOVEREIGN IMMUNITY NO LONGER APPLIES.
IF WE DID THAT, IF THE UNITED STATES AND THE EUROPEAN UNION AND GREAT BRITAIN AND CANADA AND JAPAN REWROTE THEIR LAWS TO SAY THAT SOVEREIGN IMMUNITY APPLIES IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES OTHER THAN THOSE, THEN WE COULD THEN CONFISCATE THEIR MONEY.
WE WOULDN'T BE DOING IT ILLEGALLY BUT BASED ON A LAW REWRITTEN TO ADAPT ITSELF TO THE CURRENT SITUATION.
>> IF YOU WANTED TO CONFISCATE FOREIGN RESERVES AND TALKED ABOUT LAWS BEING PASSED IN THE WEST.
WOULD CHINA AND INDIA HAVE TO GO ALONG?
>> WELL, THE THING IS THAT ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS GET THE COUNTRIES THAT HAVE RESERVE CURRENCIES REVISE THEIR LAWS.
SO IN OTHER WORDS, WE DON'T -- YOU KNOW, IF CHINA -- WE DON'T KEEP OUR MONEY IN CHINA.
SO IT'S NOT A PRECIP THING.
THERE IS ONE OTHER GREAT BENEFIT TO DOING THIS.
IF WE CONFISCATE RUSSIA'S MONEY FOR INVAING A NEIGHBORING COUNTRY, WHO ELSE HAS A BUNCH OF MONEY IN THE WEST THAT'S EYEING AND POTENTIALLY GOING TO INVADE A NEIGHBORING COUNTRY?
THAT'S CHINA.
SOME PEOPLE ARGUE THIS IDEA IS A DANGEROUS IDEA BECAUSE CHINA WILL ABANDON ALL COUNTRIES AND KEEP THEIR MONEY AT HOME.
THAT JUST -- IF IT JUST THE U.S.
DOING THIS THAT MIGHT HAPPEN WITH THE DOLLAR BUT IF EVERYBODY DOES IT TOGETHER WITH A RESERVE CURRENCY, THEN CHINA WILL HAVE TO GO ALONG WITH IT.
THEY HAVE TO BE SCARED OF IT.
>> WHAT ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
BOTH ISRAEL AND THE SAUDI DON'T SEEM TO BE ON BOARD.
WHAT IS A REASON FOR THAT AND WHAT CAN BE DONE?
>> WELL, I THINK IT'S REALLY SHAMEFUL THAT THE ISRAELIS WHO -- ISRAEL IS A COUNTRY FORMED AS A REACTION TO A GENOCIDE ARE NOW SEEING A GENOCIDE TAKING PLACE IN ANOTHER COUNTRY AND NOT HELPING OUT THAT COUNTRY.
I FIND THAT UNPLEASANT AND DISTURBING.
>> WHY IS THAT DO YOU THINK?
>> THEIR ARGUMENT IS THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE IN SYRIA AND SYRIA POSES A THREAT TO ISRAEL AND THEREFORE THEY'VE GOT TO PLAY DIFFERENT SIDES.
I THINK THEY COULD EASILY FOR EXAMPLE THE ISRAELIS HAVE AN IRON DOME DEFENSE SITUATION WHICH PREVENTS PEOPLE FROM BOMBING THEM.
THEY SHOULD PROVIDE THAT IRON DOME DEFENSE MECHANISM TO UKRAINE SO THAT THEY'RE NOT -- THE UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE ISN'T DESTROYED.
THEY COULD HELP WITH DEFENSIVE WEAPONS ON THE SAUDI ARABIA SIDE, THEY HAVE NOT BEEN A GOOD ALLY TO THE UNITED STATES.
HISTORICALLY, THE UNITED STATES HAD A DEAL WHICH IS THAT THE SAUDI KEEP OIL PRICES STABLE TO KEEP THE ECONOMY STABLE AND IN RETURN THE UNITED STATES PROVIDES A SORT OF MILITARY BLANKET OVER SAUDI ARABIA SO THEY'RE PROTECTED AND THE MILITARY BLANKET CONTINUES TO EXIST BUT THEY HAVEN'T BEEN PLAYING BALL WHEN IT COMES TO OIL WHEN THE OIL PRICES WENT UP BECAUSE OF PUTIN, WHAT DO THEY DO?
CUT PRODUCTION MORE.
SAUDIS ISN'T PLAYING FAIR AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES ARE HOSTING SCORES OF RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS, NUMEROUS RUSSIAN OLIGARCH YACHTS ARE PARKED IN DUBAI.
THIS IS ANOTHER COUNTRY THAT'S SUPPOSED TO BE AN ALLY OF THE UNITED STATES AND NOT PLAYING BALL.
THERE IS A LOT OF PRESSURE TO APPLY TO ALLIES IF WE CHOSE TO DO IT AND THE UNITED STATES IS A VERY POWERFUL COUNTRY AND I BELIEVE SHOULD IN ALL THREE CASES.
>> ONE OF THE THINGS YOU PUSH FOR IS GOING AFTER PUTIN'S WEALTH PERSONALLY.
TELL ME HOW DID HE GET ALL THAT MONEY AND WHERE IS IT AND WHAT CAN WE DO?
>> PUTIN DOESN'T KEEP ANY MONEY IN HIS NAME.
WHOEVER HAD THE BANK DOCUMENTS TO SHOW IT COULD BLACKMAIL HIM.
PUTIN HAS TO RELY ON PEOPLE HE TRUSTS.
I CALL THEM OLIGARCH TRUSTEES.
WHEN YOU SEE AN OLIGARCH WHO IS SUPPOSED WORTH 15 TO $20 BILLION ON PAPER, YOU CAN BE WELL SURE THAT HALF THAT MONEY BELONGS TO VLADIMIR PUTIN.
AND SO WHEN WE SANCTIONED THE O OLIGARCHS AND IDENTIFY THE BIGGEST AND RICHEST IN RUSSIA AND FREEZE THEIR MONEY, WE'RE NOT JUST FREEZING THEIR MONEY, WE'RE FREEZING VLADIMIR PUTIN'S MONEY.
SO ONE OF THE REASONS I'M SO FORCEFUL ON THE ISSUE OF SANCTIONING RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS IS BECAUSE WE'E SANCTIONING VLADIMIR PUTIN PERSONALLY.
WE'VE DONE A GOOD JOB.
HE SAYS THIS DOESN'T MATTER BUT HE'S FUMING WHEN THESE OLIGARCHS FIND THEIR ASSETS FROZEN AT DIFFERENT BANKS AROUND THE WORLD.
>> YOU SAY THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG WAR THE WAY IT'S GOING NOW.
ENVISION FOR ME WHAT IT WILL BE LIKE FIVE YEARS FROM NOW IF THIS THING IS STILL GOING ON THE WAY IT IS.
>> WELL, THIS IS PUTIN'S -- PUTIN -- HIS VISION IN MY MIND IS HE KNOWS HE CAN'T WIN THE WAR.
BUT HE ALSO DOESN'T CARE ABOUT THE LIVES LOST FROM HIS SIDE.
HE DOESN'T REALLY CARE ABOUT THE DESTRUCTION OF HIS MILITARY EQUIPMENT.
IN HIS MIND WHAT HE'S THINKING IS THAT WE'RE GOING TO LOSE PATIENCE BEFORE HE LOSES PATIENCE.
HE'S THINKING IN THE DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE ELECTIONS ALL THE TIME WHERE WE GROW TIRED AND WHERE WE HAVE A LIMITED BAND WIDTH THAT EVENTUALLY WE'LL STOP SUPPORTING UKRAINE AND THAT'S HIS ONLY WAY OUT OF THIS IS TO OUT LAST US AND SO -- >> WAIT, WAIT, MIGHT HE BE RIGHT?
>> I THINK THAT'S MY BIGGEST FEAR.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UKRAINIANS NOW, THEY'RE CAUSING NO END OF HARDSHIP FOR PUTIN AND HIS MILITARY.
AND ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY, THE UKRAINIANS PROBABLY WOULD EVENTUALLY SUCCEED OVER SOME LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
AND SO BUT WE'VE HEARD MURMURS IN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE FROM FAR RIGHT, FROM ALL SORTS OF STRANGE CHARACTERS SAYING NO MORE MONEY FOR UKRAINE, NO MORE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
IF THOSE MURMURS AT THE MOMENT ARE AT THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT BECOME BIGGER SECTIONS, PUTIN MAY VERY WELL BE RIGHT.
THAT'S THE FEAR I HAVE AND THE REASON WHY IT'S SO IMPORTANT WE ACTUALLY FINALLY PONY UP TO HELP THEM WIN IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
>> IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE NEGOTIATIONS OR IS THAT SOMETHING YOU JUST CAN'T ENVISION?
>> I'VE BEEN IN A BATTLE WITH PUTIN FOR OVER A YEAR BECAUSE OF THE MURDER OF MY LAWYER AND THERE IS INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS NAMED AFTER HIM APPLIED TO RUSSIA, WHICH HAS LED TO ALL SORTS OF RETALIATION BY THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT.
AND EVERY TIME THE RUSSIANS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DO THE RIGHT THING AND NEGOTIATE AND BACK DOWN AND BE REASONABLE, INSTEAD OF DOING THE RIGHT THING, THEY DOUBLED DOWN, TRIPLED DOWN AND ESCALATED.
I NEVER SEEN A MOMENT WHERE PUTIN SHOWS A SIGN OF COMPROMISE, NEGOTIATION OR REASONABLENESS IN ANYTHING I'VE DEALT WITH OR ANYTHING ELSE HE DOESN'T HAVE THE CAPACITY TO DO THAT.
HERE WE ARE WITH THIS WAR IN UKRAINE AND HE CAN'T AFFORD TO SHOW ONE TINY SIGN OF NEGOTIATION OF COMPROMISE AND SO FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, AND WE'VE SEEN IT PLAY OUT.
HE DOESN'T -- HE SAYS I'M READY FOR A PEACE NEGOTIATION AND THAT NEGOTIATION THE PRECONDITIONS ARE UKRAINE GIVES UP TERRITORY AND THAT'S IT AND OF COURSE, THE UKRAINIANS AREN'T GOING TO GIVE UP TERRITORY.
HE INVADED AND SHOULD BE REWARRED.
NO WAY.
>> BILL, AS ALWAYS, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU.
